November 11, 2008   

Elizabeth May's post-mortem analysis; off the mark!

 

When you are leader of a Party without the equivalent of a Michael Ignatieff or a Bob Rae nipping at your heals, it's easy to say what you like, when you like, and get away with it.

Yesterday the Canadian Press released Green Party 'clearly unprepared' for federal campaign: Elizabeth May, in which May blames the election result on everyone and everything but herself.

Among other gems, "My feeling throughout the campaign was that I was flying by the seat of my pants ... no campaign planning document was ever prepared that I saw ... no campaign discussions and strategy calls took place..." ...etc.

Elizabeth May flew - or rather took the train - by the seat of her pants because that's how she works, not for lack of advice she do otherwise.  

It was not the Green Party or mesmerized inexperienced minds on Council who insisted upon waiting until "Mercury was no longer retrograde" before deciding that, wait for it, Central Nova was a better idea over say London. Beyond a reliance on stellar constellations, scientific polling data was also never able to replicate the mysterious premonition Elizabeth May claimed she experienced whereupon Peter McKay would go down to defeat.

Sure, Tiger Woods will tell you a large part of his putting success comes from visualizing the ball into the hole before even making the stroke. But no amount of positive thinking will sink a putt for the elusive green jacket if played from the wrong green, much less the wrong golf course.

No planning? How does one plan for a leader who openly admits she refuses to be scripted?

Simple enough, you prepare a plan anyway and when the person chiefly responsible for executing the plan refuses, over-and-over, to do so, you execute the chief. Or in my case, resign.

There was a plan, a discussion, and a strategy:

1. Not weeks or months later, but immediately after the success of the London by-election where there was still a tremendous amount of existing on-the-ground organization, public support, and above all financial backing from community leaders, move to London and do what needed to be done to secure a realistic seat, as opposed to becoming infatuated with preconceived notions about the media-worthiness of an unwinnable David vs. Goliath fantasy race in Central Nova.

2. Don't blow bagging then Independent Garth Turner who could have overnight secured May a spot in the leaders' debate, not to mention help build and diversify the Party platform in view of the oncoming channel-change from the Environment to the Economy when told, repeatedly, it was imminent. Instead, the mounting opportunity-cost associated with obsessing for the next 18 months on a needlessly more complicated path to the leader's debate, the outcome of which accomplished what? Not a single Green seat, yet 19 more Blue seats.

3. Don't worry about having a candidate in every riding if it means a shot-gun paper-candidate. Instead, do as planned, discussed, and strategized. Pick a hand-full of ridings, and throw what limited resources are available into winning those seats. In at least this past election, it was about winning at first-past-the-post, not whining about the lack of Proportional Representation.      

4. Don't cook-up a half-baked deal with the Liberal leader that espouses strategic voting and then deny a back-room deal was made. The self-serving and half-measures deal struck with Stéphane Dion was difficult enough for Greens to comprehend, some of whom felt betrayed or at least confused, without the very conflicted on-again off-again support and denial of support for strategic voting.

To say that plan, that discussion, and that strategy never existed and then after-the-fact complain about flying by the seat of ones stressed-out and spread-thin pants shows dishonesty and an accountability to no one.

None of this is to say Elizabeth May is, as she said of Canadians, stupid, or that her days in politics are necessarily numbered. On the contrary, May is extremely intelligent and has a command of the facts, the files, and an ability to communicate more effectively than almost any other Canadian politician.

Given the non-existent strength of the bench behind her, the Green Party isn't likely to oust the single personality that got them this far, and May cocksure knows this when she writes "I intend to remain as leader of the Green party. My personal popularity with the Canadian electorate is something, speaking as objectively as possible, that the Green party needs."

Elizabeth May's six-page post-mortem goes on to list the lessons learned and path of the future. No lesson will be learned and no path more successful will be followed so long as Elizabeth May and the Green Party don't accept reality, only a portion of which is outlined above.

Noticeably absent from May's analysis is the one and only point of assessment she got absolutely right on election night. The election result shows that the system of first-past-the-post is the single biggest obstacle standing in the way of a Green Party breakthrough in the House of Commons.

Elizabeth May and her movement have but one very simple choice to make; they can work to help change the system and then win, or they can win and then help change the system.

If we observe continued denial of the facts and the same zero-sum-game strategy, just more of if, we'll know they contently settled on the former.

If on the other hand we see concrete action that finally recognizes the impact of vote-splitting among the non-Conservative parties, including what to do about it, then gosh-darn, maybe a lesson was learned after all.