With that prediction safely in the books, perhaps I can afford to go perch myself on yet another limb with what I believe are three must conditions in order for Tiger to secure a Masters victory this year at Augusta.

First, Tiger has to be physically and mentally game ready. I am quite certain that notwithstanding his off-course ordeal, Tiger has sufficiently kept himself in necessary good physical condition including more recently the playing and non-playing practice needed to have his swing and putting where it needs to be. By some account of the practice rounds others have played with him, Tiger’s game is as physically and mentally “game ready” as at any time in the past, or better. I believe it.

Frankly, not having to worry about keeping at bay the other 14 or so holes Tiger was, at any given time, playing in another dimension, should contribute to better physical and mental play.

Second, after Tiger carries out his very public 2:00 pm press conference on Monday, April 5, he needs to shut everything down. By everything, I mean everything. Not another interview until it’s over and the only three people he should talk to are, in this order, Steve Williams, Hank Hainey, and himself. Possibly too, Elin, but only under the right circumstances.

Tiger’s conscious and unconscious mind need to be in unison and in a trans-like focus where nothing can distract. A bomb could go off in the middle of his backswing or “patrons” could utter whatever tired or new punchlines they like, Joslyn James could carry out her rumoured threat to figuratively streak naked across Hogan’s bridge, and Tiger has to be completely oblivious to it all. Tiger should wake up Monday morning after the Masters and, if necessary, only then learn about any of the other stuff that may have happened and which might have served to put him off his game and the single task at hand, winning.

This is about more than just being motivated, ready, and focused. It’s about being in a meditative or hypnotic trans for 4 days straight, completely uninterrupted and at peace with yourself. Anything that Tiger lets pierce that protective bubble puts winning at risk.

Third, the usual dose of good luck with respect to weather, wind, bounces and roll that is required to win any tournament, let alone the Masters, has to go Tiger’s way. As the commercials say, these guys are good, but from several hundred yards they are in control of a result that is within feet, not inches. And within those uncontrollable inches there are still bounces and rolls that can go one way or the other that only the golf-gods can choose to play with at their good humour and discretion. Some call it good or bad karma to be thanked or cursed. Regardless, this is the third condition over which Tiger, nor any player, has much or any control, but it’s a condition which must be met as successfully as the first two.

Others will think the opposite or disagree with the conditions and strategy I have set out. Some will think Tiger needs to be loose, cajoling, flapping about, and visibly paying homage to his surroundings, the media, and to his daemons. Essentially prescribing that Tiger be something he hasn’t ever been before. They are wrong of course and only prove they don’t understand the game, Tiger, or the living hell from which he is trying to reincarnate.

Tiger has absolute control over 2 of 3 conditions. He can get himself physically game ready and I think Tiger is one of two people I know who can, when he really needs to, completely turn off all outside and inside distraction. However, Tiger can’t control the luck of the occasional good or bad roll. At Augusta, where wind and undulation are uniquely your worst or best friend, luck is often what makes the difference.

Do I believe Tiger will succeed? Let me answer this way; if all three conditions are met, he can’t lose.

One last prediction…

If on Sunday Tiger is in the hunt – and he will be – then Elin will be there. Note, this is not one of the three conditions.

As my wife less charitably noted, the event seemed overly prepared, handled, and rehearsed. Looking up at the camera at just the right time appeared more the product of professional coaching than a genuine connection with his audience. The gratuitous and elaborate references to his various charities and foundations was overkill. But in the end, did any of this take away from what I believe Tiger is truly feeling? No, not really.

To be kind, perhaps we are just so used to seeing Tiger in a golf shirt, golf hat, relaxed and unscripted, that it’s difficult for us to adapt to a different context.

If Tiger owed us an apology, and perhaps he did, then we at least owe Tiger the right to deliver that apology in whatever manner he is comfortable. That is Tiger’s right as much as it is our right to have our own individual reactions to what Tiger had to say. For my part as a fan and as a semi-competitive and avid golfer, Tiger needn’t apologize further. At least not to me.

Some of the negative commentary following Tiger’s statement focuses on the fact we are no further ahead in knowing when Tiger may return to competitive golf. What irks me is this criticism comes from the very same people, who if Tiger had used the occasion to also announce his return to Augusta in a mere 7 weeks, would have dismissed Tiger’s apology as disingenuous and merely as a pretence for announcing his return to golf. Tiger was damned either way.

I must admit that in the final few minutes before Tiger spoke, perhaps once I caught a glimpse of the somber room full of somber looking people, I suddenly became very concerned that Tiger might announce he would not play in this year’s Masters or perhaps not at all this year, or ever again. How selfish of me? Here is a guy that’s obviously going through hell, even if it’s mostly self-inflicted, and what I seemed to care most about was whether or not Tiger was going to entertain me by putting a small round ball in a slightly larger round hole.

For those of you who think that’s all I, and I suspect others, were worried about, you can stop reading now.

Tiger’s words, even if borrowed, ring very true; “it’s not what we achieve, it’s what we overcome that matters.’ Perhaps then our zeal for wanting to see Tiger back sooner rather than later says more about our desire for early signs that Tiger is successfully overcoming his daemons than it is about watching the world’s number 1 golfer play golf.

Tiger may not defeat his daemons and his marriage may yet fail. But not everyone has, or should have, the morbid mentality of a  TMZ or the National Enquirer. There is a vast difference between showing an appropriate amount of interest in Tiger’s unfortunate circumstances versus wanting, hoping, and in some cases having at least an indirect hand in causing someone fall just to sell more eyeballs.

There appears to be no limit to what Tiger can be criticize for, including Ernie Els and others who think the timing of Tiger’s statement during the Accenture match play championship is “selfish.”  I truly did not see what benefit accrued to Tiger by speaking on Friday as opposed to say Monday, nor do I see how Accenture was so maligned. In fact, I agree with Brandel Chamblee’s assessment that Accenture has only benefited as more viewers than otherwise might have tuned in when Tiger is in the news in one form or another.

More ironic, if not selfish in their own right, is that Accenture is the firm who shortly after the Tiger saga broke, I thought initially showed the greatest amount of compassion and insight into the complexities of the matter with their clever “it’s what you do next that counts” advertisement. Too bad Accenture was too selfish to stick around long enough to find out. Or, was Accenture also guilty of some level of disingenuousness?

For weeks, if not months, I have openly speculated that Tiger would play in the 2010 Masters. Now I am not so sure. But my gut still thinks/hopes there is no way Tiger’s role in this year’s Master’s is going to be limited to that of clutching a TV remote.

No way!

I could be wrong, but I think having sex with multiple other women might have been the culprit.

So why take away golf?

Golf is not to blame unless you want to say Tiger’s golf success and status gave rise [no pun intended] to the opportunity. But if that’s the case Tiger could go on to become a successful stock broker, a neuro-surgeon, or even the president of the USA, and he would still be confronted with the desire and temptation to give in to his sexual appetite.

So lets be clear about at least one thing, the break from golf has only to do with taking Tiger out of the fishbowl.

Everyone of us, at one point or another in life, encounters an event whereby we need some space and time to regroup. It’s impossible, or at least a good deal more difficult, to accomplish such a feat with tabloid-like coverage of your every move 24/7. An escape from the public eye, if only for a few months, gives Tiger [and Elin] much needed time out of the limelight.

But what, precisely, do they expect to accomplish?

While the TMZ’s of the world would have us believe Tiger is nothing more that a throw-caution-to-the-wind and insensitive horn-dog, the number and kind of escapades Tiger is reported to have engaged in is, according to even more reports, an addiction. Perhaps even a mental illness. Presumably therefore, like most other addictions and mental illnesses, there are treatments and cures. Personally, I think a healthy dose of personal will-power wouldn’t hurt.

No doubt whenever Tiger resurfaces, be that in days, weeks, months or years, there will be those who don’t buy the paragraph above. Some, like TMZ, won’t because there is still a buck to be made from believing and pushing the story otherwise. Others simply don’t believe in addictions and mental illness, much less in treatment or cures.

And then, of course, there is Elin who has ahead of her an entirely different challenge. I’ll get to that in a minute.

Tiger’s imposed or self-imposed purgatory, with or without treatment, may be successful. Like everyone else I don’t know what he is or is not capable of on a personal level. Although the kind of success Tiger has achieved in golf involves a certain discipline which should give him a leg up.

There are, however, at least a couple of possibilities I would argue are more likely scenarios and which suggests the road Tiger and Elin have chosen is doomed for certain failure. This leaves selfish fans such as myself questioning the logic of the hiatus away from golf.

Another required read is the MailOnline piece entitled ”How Elin Woods couldn’t be less like the women Tiger jumped into bed with.” The piece is confirmation Elin Nordegren is anything but the stereotypical bimbo it appears Tiger has a secondary, if not a primary, attraction to. And therein lies the rub.

If Elin was, say a Holly Sampson or a Jaimee Grubbs, then Tiger would have less of an issue to contend with. There is a class of women (men too) who would be only too happy to be married to the billion-dollar athlete that bangs everything in sight. But those aren’t the girls who earn general public respect, a special place in mom’s heart, nor are they the women most men want as their wife and mother to their offspring. The fact Elin Nordegren is, on top of everything else, gorgeous, hot, and every other shallow superlative imaginable, simply a bonus. A bonus it may be too late for Tiger to further reap the benefits thereof.

Tiger can change, receive treatment and be cured. Forgiveness too, from Elin, while tenuous at best, is possible. Less certain is whether or not Elin can forget or at least put the sting far enough back in the memory bank to still have a happy life with her children and Tiger.

We aren’t talking, allegedly, about a single instance of transgression. While not excusable, that would be understood. But a plethora of wild orgies with dozens of skanky women, hookers and porn stars who now are only too happy to report on every detail of Tiger’s apparent endowing and energizer bunny like characteristics is likely too much of a painful and vivid memory for any woman – I don’t care how virtuous she is – to accept.

Tiger can re-write the definition of p-whipped, even taking it to new levels of submission never before performed, and it won’t change what I believe Elin will fail to ever get past.

The jury is still out on the wisdom of the “for the sake of the kids” argument, and in any event there are tolerance limits to what a spouse can put up with, which Tiger has, by all accounts, gone way above and beyond. In short, Tiger could tomorrow become a man of the cloth – bad analogy I know – and he is still doomed insofar as salvaging a healthy marriage with Elin Nordegren.

Finally, there is Tiger himself and what he is driven by. One does not become what Tiger is to the world of professional golf without it being ingrained into your blood and central nervous system. Tiger can, I am certain of this, get over or deal more appropriately with his sexual appetite. Tiger will also come to learn the best relationship he can have with his kids may not be in pretend family mode. In time that fairytale too fades and can, in fact, make matters for the kids worse, not better.

Since the Tiger saga began, this space has been and continues to be supportive of Tiger. However, on December 9th when this image hit the real and figurative newsstands, Tiger’s and Elin’s road to recovery took a sharp turn for the worse. The current path and strategy, whatever it was, became irrelevant. On that day the very essence of what Tiger may have been dealing with forever changed calling for an all-new and back-to-the-drawing-board approach.

In order to resurrect, re-invent, and reintegrate himself back into the world of professional golf, Tiger and his sponsors need time to let the raging attention subside. Time in the penalty box is therefore the right thing to do and necessary. But time served needn’t, and I would argue ought not, take years.

Despite everything Tiger is, may be guilty of, and has or will come to genuinely regret, I simply can’t imagine on April 8, 2010, day one of the Masters, Tiger uttering the words, “Honey, [gulp] can I have the remote?”

On or before that date I strongly suspect true colours, clarity and direction will emerge.

Surprisingly or perhaps unsurprisingly, the cast of characters seeking to exploit Tiger’s predicament is made up of people from both off and – this is the surprising part – on the golf course.

Even for the mighty Tiger, whose father trained him to ignore distraction by practice heckling him in his backswing, yesterday’s pointy-edge shot by Jesper Parnevik may expose an unanticipated vulnerability in Tiger’s armour. The character snickers, jeers, and steers will be new to Tiger.

Yet to be determined is how Tiger will be affected by fellow competitors who, with some sense of intent and purpose, will strive to ensure that Tiger is made to feel he is no longer “the man to beat,” but rather “a beaten man.” For those with no, or who never had, game to compete, the tactic may be their only hope.

The difference between being truly apologetic versus only sorry you got caught is often a matter of which sentiment you feel first. Those who deny feeling initially sorry [for themselves] they got caught will have a hard time graduating to true feelings of remorse. The cynics and the man-haters will believe what they want to believe and the Media will spin-it however they wish. This much we have already witnessed and not usually to the victims’ benefit.

For many it, unfortunately, takes “getting caught” and the associated all-fours-on-the-floor and gut-wrenching realization of the destruction one has caused to get beyond feeling only sorry for yourself or for getting caught. This much is in Tiger’s hands. How others, including especially his wife Elin, respond both in the short and in the long term is less so in Tiger’s control.

Of all the opinions out there, required reading should be Margaret Wente, who I don’t always find myself in agreement with, which yesterday’s piece was “In a case of lust over brains, a mighty Tiger becomes mortal.” To Margaret’s masterpiece I will take the liberty of adding the following bold, if not overly presumptuous final two thoughts.

First, perhaps more than any other celebrity infidelity, I suspect Tiger’s will have a more profound effect, both good and bad, on men in general than any other in modern history.

Second, the sad reality is a lot of men who themselves aren’t perfect, have tried to live a more perfect life vicariously through Tiger’s apparent perfection. For a lot of men their ultimate disappointment wont be with Tiger, but rather with themselves who, without a role model to excuse their own sins must now choose how to face their own daemons. This would be the best case scenario. The worst case scenario would result if most come to the conclusion “well, if he can do it…”.

In the meantime Kudos to Accenture who, in their latest advertisement below, apparently have no creative difficulty whatsoever demonstrating how very clearly they get it and, reading between the lines, their expectation that Tiger gets it too.