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	<title> &#187; Book Review</title>
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		<title>What if Garth Turner is right, again?</title>
		<link>http://www.danbaril.com/2008/12/29/what-if-garth-turner-is-right-again/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danbaril.com/2008/12/29/what-if-garth-turner-is-right-again/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Dec 2008 12:00:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>danbaril</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Book Review]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://s63351.gridserver.com/?p=37</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chapter-after-chapter the crap scares out of you with near indisputable facts. Then, in the final chapter of his new book After the Crash, Garth Turner outlines three economic scenarios; Probable, Possible, and Worst Case. You&#8217;ll have to read the book yourself for the details when it&#8217;s available in mid-January, but that&#8217;s not what most caught [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-family: Tahoma;"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-38" title="after-the-crash-2" src="http://s63351.gridserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/after-the-crash-2.jpg" alt="after-the-crash-2" width="298" height="459" />Chapter-after-chapter the crap scares out of you with near indisputable facts. Then, in the final chapter of his new book <strong><em>After the Crash</em></strong>, Garth Turner outlines three economic scenarios; Probable, Possible, and Worst Case. You&#8217;ll have to read the book yourself for the details when it&#8217;s available in mid-January, but that&#8217;s not what most caught my attention when I read my &#8220;review copy&#8221; of what will surely be another best-seller. </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">In that same final chapter, warding off the alarmist label some are sure to affix to his leathers, Turner rhetorically poses and answers two critical questions </span><em><span style="font-size: medium; font-family: Times New Roman;">&#8220;&#8230;should a sensible, non-alarmist person worry about the “possible” or “worst case” scenarios above? Or is this stuff too over the top? The answer lies in the nature of risk. If the possibility of something happening is not 0%, then a prudent person usually does something to protect against it.&#8221;</span></em><span style="font-family: Tahoma;"> </span><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">   </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">The question I kept asking myself as I was reading, and since, is how much above zero percent probability are the Possible or the Worst Case scenarios, and to whom does one look for the answer? </span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Should Canadians look to a Prime Minister and his sidekick Minister of Finance who a few months ago told Canadians </span><em><span style="font-size: medium; font-family: Times New Roman;"><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.fin.gc.ca/n07/07-069_1-eng.asp" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/www.fin.gc.ca');" target="_blank">&#8220;our economic fundamentals are as solid as the Canadian Shield&#8221;</a></span></em><span style="font-family: Tahoma;"> or to the guy about who the Canadian Press says </span><a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://ca.news.finance.yahoo.com/s/20122008/2/biz-finance-world-according-garth-hard-times-begun-look-below.html" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/ca.news.finance.yahoo.com');" target="_blank"><em><span style="font-size: medium; font-family: Times New Roman;">&#8220;&#8230;more important may be that the former MP&#8217;s alarmist book about collapsing housing prices in Canada &#8211; &#8220;Greater Fool,&#8221; which he began writing last December when the sky seemed to be the limit &#8211; <strong>has turned out scarily bang-on</strong>.&#8221;</span></em> </a></p>
<div class="Section1">
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Far from being just another &#8220;how to&#8221; book &#8211; although there is some of that too &#8211; reading between the lines of <em>After the Crash</em>, there is a far more fundamental message about taking back that which a few decades ago many of us unwittingly gave up. Control. </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Control of what is another question, as is how much and in what denomination. </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Garth makes it amply clear the decision about taking control is a very personal decision which ultimately each of us has to make on our own. The book doesn&#8217;t make the decision for you but there is certainly no shortage of facts, figures and a historical context to help the reader decide. By the end of the book it&#8217;s also clear what decisions and which path Garth has, and is, taking.</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">L</span><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">ooking back at 2008, I will be kind and generous. I won&#8217;t say politicians did what they did on purpose. Instead I will let them get away with saying they didn&#8217;t know &#8211; read as they proved their incompetence. </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Truth is Misters Harper, Flaherty, Ignatieff, Layton, Duccepe, and their Provincial equivalents haven&#8217;t a clue what&#8217;s truly in store for 2009. I watched Stephen Harper&#8217;s year-end interview with the CTV duo, Robertson and Fife, and I can&#8217;t for the life of me figure out why the broadcaster needed two questioners of a man with no answers. The interview was about nothing like no show of Seinfeld ever was.     </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">For certain and just as the real estate industry did a year ago and continues today, the government doesn&#8217;t see its role as telling the truth so much as it believes in self-servingly creating and maintaining an illusion and working to prevent widespread panic. Fair enough, there is no sense in making matters worse, but at some point &#8211; preferably sooner than later &#8211; Canadians need to draw the line on blatant deceitfulness driven by greed and power-hungry partisanship.</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Politics <strong>is</strong> the blood sport it&#8217;s reputed to be. That much we know. But as of quite some time ago the end-game seems no longer about what political good is done with the winnings, rather it&#8217;s all about ensuring no end to the game of politics. </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">For those on the inside and those just on the outside it&#8217;s all good fun and terrific theatre. We get to play directly as strategists or indirectly as colour commentators about who&#8217;s right, who&#8217;s wrong, anticipated next moves, and an endless stream of differing analysis. But as my father used to say when we kids horsed-around too much, it&#8217;s all good fun until somebody gets hurt. And by some measure of account, it appears 2009 is going to hurt plenty.</span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">To minimize the hurt each person has to decide for themselves how much of the Probable scenario they can weather or how much above zero percent is the probability of Garth&#8217;s predictions of the Possible Case and Worst Case scenarios. Rationalists may ask why plan for the less likely scenarios, and perhaps that&#8217;s a good question so long as you trust the person attaching percentage probabilities to each scenario. </span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">True to form, the best line in <em>After the Crash</em>  is a taunt at the end of chapter one;</span><span style="font-size: medium; font-family: Times New Roman;"><em> <strong>&#8220;&#8230;after you read the factors which got us here, and the trends now propelling current events, the ultimate decision is yours on how aggressively you prepare, or how much you pray you don’t have to.&#8221;</strong></em></span></p>
<p style="margin-bottom: 0px;" align="left"><span style="font-family: Tahoma;">Ahem, Dear God&#8230;</span> </p>
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		<title>Blame Don Tapscott; even digital kids say the darndest things and give us priceless moments</title>
		<link>http://www.danbaril.com/2006/11/03/blame-don-tapscott-even-digital-kids-say-the-darndest-things-and-give-us-priceless-moments/</link>
		<comments>http://www.danbaril.com/2006/11/03/blame-don-tapscott-even-digital-kids-say-the-darndest-things-and-give-us-priceless-moments/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Nov 2006 14:00:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>danbaril</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Book Review]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Personal]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://s63351.gridserver.com/?p=390</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you are 40 something with kids, have you noticed your kids learn differently than you did?  
Blaming Don Tapscott probably isn&#8217;t fair, because his 1998 book &#8220;Growing Up Digital&#8220; is as relevant in explaining things today as it was groundbreaking then. 
A couple of weeks ago my wondrous 15 year old daughter, Cassidie, managed [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Tahoma;"><img class="alignright size-full wp-image-391" title="don-tapscott" src="http://s63351.gridserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/don-tapscott.jpg" alt="don-tapscott" width="147" height="174" />If you are 40 something with kids, have you noticed your kids learn differently than you did?  </span></span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Tahoma;">Blaming Don Tapscott probably isn&#8217;t fair, because his 1998 book <em>&#8220;<a style="text-decoration: none;" href="http://www.growingupdigital.com/" onclick="javascript:pageTracker._trackPageview('/outbound/article/www.growingupdigital.com');">Growing Up Digital</a>&#8220;</em> is as relevant in explaining things today as it was groundbreaking then. </span></span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Tahoma;"><img class="alignleft size-full wp-image-392" title="cass-irhs-sept-2005" src="http://s63351.gridserver.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/cass-irhs-sept-2005.jpg" alt="cass-irhs-sept-2005" width="134" height="167" />A couple of weeks ago my wondrous 15 year old daughter, Cassidie, managed to say it all in 15 words or less: <span style="color: #800000;">&#8220;I couldn&#8217;t make it any better, so I went back and made it worse.&#8221;</span>   </span></span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">The statement</span><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"> needs explaining, obviously, and it may possibly fall into one of those &#8220;you had to be there&#8221; categories, but let me try anyway to put you in that priceless moment, so to speak.</span></span></span></span> </p>
<p align="justify"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Tahoma;"> </span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Of course <strong>what</strong> kids learn today is a topic of its own. Perhaps another time I&#8217;ll post an entry on that topic alone, because I look at today&#8217;s high school math for example and I have a hard time believing I did any of it, let alone that I ever truly understood it. Who knows, maybe I did.  </span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">For now I am more interested in <strong>how</strong> kids learn today, which is a quantum leap different from what I endured in the 60&#8217;s and 70&#8217;s. It&#8217;s astonishing to witness the role of digital technology in forming the minds of a generation that hardly knew of a time without PCs, the Internet, Cell Phones, MP3 players, Digital Cameras&#8230;etc. Forget library index card, what&#8217;s a Library? In a matter of minutes, kids today can access, research, and absorb 10 times the information which in my time took days, even weeks.</span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">For years I considered digital technology as simply a collection of more efficient tools for getting a job done. And they are that also. But being a bit of a techno-weenie myself and as soon as the kids could use them, or sooner, there wasn&#8217;t a piece of digital technology they didn&#8217;t grow up with. <span style="color: #800000;"><em>&#8220;</em>All houses have high speed connections in <strong>all</strong> rooms don&#8217;t they? And Dad, what do you mean not all 8 year olds don&#8217;t have a MSN on their PDA-Phones? Voice mail? forget it! Takes too long, just TM me.&#8221;</span></span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">What I didn&#8217;t quite realize until more recently though, is the significant impact on core &#8220;thinking processes&#8221; and &#8220;problem solving&#8221; that occurs as a direct result of being exposed, nearly since birth, to a steady diet of digital technology. The impact is not just in the types of solutions kids come up with, but the manner in which they derive, access, process, and choose from among possible solutions. More important, for today&#8217;s teenagers the process happens in a instant and to them it&#8217;s no big deal. It&#8217;s just the way it is. Unlike us, kids care less about the <strong>how</strong>, but they care deeply about the <strong>what</strong>.</span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">The difference is I might produce a piece of work using technology &#8211; a slide show, a musical arrangement, or even a few carefully worded thoughts in a blog &#8211; and when it&#8217;s all done I might marvel as much about the technology involved and how technology made it all possible, whereas most kids today care only about the result. They award no brownie-points for process. </span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">The process for kids is a given, which explains why I nearly drove off the road when Cassidie said what she said, whereas she looked at me wondering what the big fuss was all about.</span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><em><span style="color: #800000;">&#8220;Dad&#8221;</span></em> she said, as we were making our way along the 401 westbound to London to meet halfway her best grade-school friend Abby now living Michigan, <span style="color: #800000;"><em>&#8220;</em>when you write, do you compose an entire draft without stopping and then go back and edit? Or do you edit over-and-over as you type?&#8221;</span>  </span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">I thought for a moment and said <span style="color: #800000;"><em>&#8220;</em>I think mostly I edit sentences and paragraphs over-and-over as I type, but then I go back when I think I am done and I edit, add, delete, cut, paste, move, and correct anything I don&#8217;t like, but the original body and content remains largely intact. I do it this way because that&#8217;s the way my mind works. I have to fully develop and finish an idea while I am still thinking about it and before I lose it. Why do you ask?&#8221;</span></span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma"><span style="color: #800000;">&#8220;You&#8217;re not serious!!!&#8221; </span>She shrieked, <span style="color: #800000;">&#8220;So that&#8217;s where I get it &#8230; it&#8217;s all your fault!&#8221;</span> she said with equal amounts of teasing and sarcasm.</span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">After thoroughly debating the pros, the cons, and the historical origin of other methods, I asked Cassidie why and what this was all about. And that&#8217;s when one of those precious moments occurred, you know the ones today&#8217;s busy teenagers seemingly have less-and-less time for, but that several hours alone and in a car together, can&#8217;t help but bring about.</span><span style="font-size: x-small; font-family: Tahoma;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">  </span></span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="color: #800000;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">&#8220;Well, my English teacher gave us this writing assignment and we <strong>had</strong> to hand in three drafts plus a final, fully showing the changes and progression from each draft to the final. Given the way I write [making changes and editing over-and-over along the way] I had it nearly the way I wanted after the first draft. Upon review, I made only minor changes in the second draft before producing the final. But the teacher was <strong>adamant</strong> we&#8217;d lose marks unless we handed in three drafts plus a final. So&#8230;&#8221;  </span></span><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">&#8211; are you ready for this &#8211;  </span><span style="color: #800000;"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">&#8220;<strong>&#8230;as much as I tried I couldn&#8217;t make it any better, so I went back to my first draft, made a copy, and made it worse!&#8221;</strong></span></span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">In my &#8220;day job&#8221; I&#8217;ve ad-tested more than my fair share of MasterCard priceless moments. The very real one above, in my view, tops the list and if you think about it long enough, it truly is no big deal to a kid growing up digital. Thank you Mr. Tapscott.</span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">Can&#8217;t wait to see what the next generation might accomplish learning from teachers who won&#8217;t ever have known a world before digital technology. </span></p>
<p align="justify"><span style="FONT-SIZE: 11pt; FONT-FAMILY: Tahoma">By then I imagine the discussion will center on the writing styles of bodies of work typed, versus those composed using voice recognition and the different neurological processes between the two. Not to worry, though, they&#8217;ll still call it English class <img src='http://www.danbaril.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':-)' class='wp-smiley' />  </span></p>
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