Year end polling led to a mixed bag of political punditry. Was Conservative support softening or was Liberal support beginning to grab hold?

Nine days into the new year under the heading Minority Report I wrote "...we badly need mid-January and early February data to learn in which way the underlying sentiment is heading...".

Weeks later, deliberately not writing but closely watching, we now know.

Just over two weeks ago on February 8th when pollsters had the contenders in a dead heat or Liberals ahead by less than the margin of error, I sent a note to a few close associates "The data being collected this week will show Conservative numbers improving with further improvement in their numbers next week. You heard it here first ;-)"

Last week, the Globe and Mail and CTV trumpeted the Strategic Counsel's latest figures claiming Conservatives have, almost overnight, leapfrogged the Liberals by a whopping 12%, with some even whispering the M word. Less giddy, are numbers from Harris/Decima where Conservatives aren't pegged quite so far ahead, but nevertheless show a rebound from December lows and a sense of change in direction.

So what happened?

Either by design or by coincidence the tactical strategies Conservatives implemented worked. Evidence to date suggests not a lot isn't by design with this government.

In short, Canadians don't buy Mulroney-Schreiber as inseparably linked to the current Conservative brand as say Adscam is associated with the Liberal regime. And one who escaped that regime with credentials unscathed, John Manley, authored a government-friendly as opposed to opposition-sympathetic Afghanistan strategy, all the while Liberals were simultaneously made to appear soft on crime committed on home soil. Finally, with economic doom-and-gloom serving as the backdrop of convenience, if Conservative attack couldn't resurrect memories of Liberal deficit spending, which apparently it can, then easy enough to resume perpetuating leadership ridicule on the basis of hand-sitting abstinence.

For the collective of public opinion that pays conscious attention to any of this as much as it does breathing in and out, subconsciously at least, the evening sound byte served its purpose. Exceedingly well, I might add, in view of the counter response which was difficult to decipher, if even perceptible.

It was not difficult, therefore, to gauge how and in what direction opinion would form as it was forming, notwithstanding Allan Gregg's wise and experienced words of caution.

Not lost on this observer is the ease with which collateral damage was inflicted, almost as a bonus, on some of the ankle-biters. Once again, the perception of the economy as a more visible, immediate and tangible threat over the environment, made child's play out of taking pot shots at that movement for statements like "Christian Crusaders" and "Jailing Climate Disbelievers."

To make matters worse on an individual level, at a time when Canada's two leading parties have seemingly reached a consensus on Afghanistan, the race in Central Nova against the Conservative incumbent perceived as that file's champion, becomes all the more futile.

Not surprisingly therefore, the Green Party has self-inflicted its fractured self back into single digits, 14% down to 9%, and scrambles to remain relevant as the Consortium surely distances itself from any earlier thoughts of inclusion in the Leader's Debate. More on this another time.

So if the conditions are once again ripe, or at least not unfavourable, for the ruling Conservatives, how then to orchestrate ones own demise? Good question given the opposition has already loudly and proudly announced, it's shooting blanks.

Budget week ahead will be an interesting one. Are we heading to the polls? I honestly don't know.  

Whose numbers do I think would benefit if an election somehow manufactures itself out of nothing? All things being equal - the content of communication seemingly taking a back seat to the context out of which things can be taken - the incumbent.