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As the curtain closes on 2007, the question most often asked of people thought to have the answer is "what's in store for 2008?"
Never mind the answer, for now. The question itself means different things to different people on different continents, with different interests, and under different circumstances.
On this continent of interested circumstance I don't profess to know the answer with any greater degree of certainty than anyone else, but unintentionally, or perhaps intentionally, Mr. Harper dropped a bombshell of a clue during his year-end interview with Peter Mansbridge.
Click here or the image surrounding Mr. Harper to view the final 35 second clip from Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth. Then click here or the image of Mr. Harper to view the 46 second clip to which I refer from his interview. I am not convinced my future grandchildren are going to look back upon Rona Ambrose and John Baird, much less Stephen Harper, and conclude we did too much. Are you?
Mr. Harper understands perfectly the question future generations pose, however, Mr. Harper understands equally well, or better, the potential for taking political advantage of current generations.
For just over a year, Canadians have given pollsters a conditioned response; the Environment is the highest priority. That's an easy, politically and socially correct answer to give when one is healthy, employed, and not financially under water. Polling data also suggests the "stick-with-it" sentiment is at least stronger than last time Canadians flirted with environmental good-conscience.
But ask Canadians if when others, not them, say they will stick by the environment even if the economy tanks, if the expression of well-intent is genuine or evidence more political correctness, and the data also supports the year old notion that "much of the public’s concern for the environment is essentially fraudulent."
Prognosticating the year ahead isn't whether or not the environment issue can out-sustain its closest competition, but rather if it does, can Stephen Harper turn the tables and make political hay out of unrelated economic coincidences. Under the right circumstances I believe he can, and the year end interview is proof-positive of the 2008 communications strategy.
For some, linking economic doom-and-gloom with doing something about the environment is the arguable equivalent to the economic doom-and-gloom professed by others of doing nothing. That too is a debate my grandchildren can resolve. But for today, the economic indicators, especially south of the border vis-à-vis the credit and real estate markets, hints to a cross-border spillover expected to impact Canada by the first or second quarter of 2008, if it hasn't already.
Slowdowns in the US economy surely hasn't to do with its avant-garde approach to lowering greenhouse gas emissions. However, apparently soon to be doing "too much," the Harper government can't contain its glee over the opportunity it sees to manufacture a false correlation with economic circumstances already underway.
Armed with fresh polling data confirming a large voter contingent may be willing to embrace the notion that environmental effort results in economic hardship, Mr. Harper is counting on having an easier time than opposition parties messaging to a predisposed audience.
The degree of somberness in the balance of Mr. Harper's year-end interview was calculated in the hope the government could continue to address the environment in the same way as some Canadians are accused of caring about it, fraudulently.
For their part, opposition parties are still caught in the headlights. Notwithstanding the appearance of a downward blip in Conservative fortunes in year end polling, this will only be significant if the numbers repeat themselves in the weeks ahead.
Conservative misfortune does not erase Stéphane Dion's leadership woes. Mr. Layton still appears satisfied that a concentration of ~15% of the vote could see the NDP picking up a handful of seats, whereas the Green Party rejoices that its fractured ~13%, if this time it holds, may elect a single seat. The Bloc is a Quebec wild card, but not sure if it's still in the game.
The Left, for all its talk about the issue of the century, still shows no concrete sign of getting it; that putting its ego in check and uniting is its best hope in fighting the effects of vote-splitting where the ultimate benefactor is Mr. Harper and the Conservatives.
Environment vs. Economy; battleground defined
Archives: 2008→ MAR 03 FEB: 23 JAN: 09 2007→ DEC: 30, 19, 12 NOV: 14, 13, 12, 05, 01 OCT: 30, 26, 15, 09 SEP: 28-6 23, 21, 15 JUNE: 20, 11 MAY: 30, 20, 12, 09, 04 APR: 28, 25, 20, 18, 16, 13 MAR: 27, 20, 18, 07, 05 FEB: 24, 15, 07, 05 JAN: 24, 22, 11, 04 2006→ DEC: 30, 22, 17, 15, 09, 05 NOV: 28, 26, 17, 06, 03 OCT: 29, 26, 23, 20, 14, 10, 08 JUL: 15