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Can't wait to read everyone else's speculation in the days ahead.

Since especially the Quebec election, many people including me, predicted a PQ coronation of Mr. Duceppe. But once again, I am less interested in the obvious and more so in the aftermath. Where, for instance, will the BQ vote go?

As luck would have it, I spent the weekend in my once home province of Quebec, doing as I like to do; talking at length with people who still live there, that I still greatly respect, and who still eat, breath, and live the culture I once did for 25+ years. 

The consensus we reached Saturday night was the Bloc is heading for ~30 seats down from its current 51. And yes, that factored a Federal election sans the mighty Mr. Duceppe at the BQ helm.

The two questions I find myself asking just days after contemplating the very events before us, is whether or not ~30 seats is too generous? Might we see a further implosion BQ vote? For now I'll hold-off predicting under 30 Bloc seats in the next election.

More interesting, is who's apt to reap the rewards of the 20+ seats potentially up for grabs? The answer to that question isn't so obvious and I will, at this ridiculously early stage, go out on a limb and say the guy above and to the right. 

I realize such thinking runs contrary to polls of the past week, including ours, suggesting Conservative fortunes in Quebec have, in the past month, seemingly fallen from the mid 20's to the mid-teens. I see a lot of people jumping on the premature band-wagon, suggesting Mr. Harper is doomed in Quebec. Not so fast. This may be one of those times the polls have it wrong looking a few months out.

Simply because Mr. Duceppe will soon be charged with rekindling the PQ spirit - with the most fervent of those of a sovereign penchant tapping foot to see how committed he is - this does not mean Mr. Duceppe is a fool. On the contrary. Job one won't be [serious] talk of secession or a referendum anytime soon. Despite the saber-rattling and familar rhetoric, Mr. Duceppe knows that beyond the ~35% strong separatist sentiment, there isn't a lot of appetite for such talk among the other ~65% in Quebec. Indeed, Mr. Duceppe's number one priority will, for certain, involve reestablishing the PQ as a credible and capable party best suited to manage Quebec's affairs.

Mr. Duceppe will be focused on trying carve out a piece out of the space Mr. Dumont only recently acquired, that Mr. Boisclair lost, and which Mr. Charest was never destined to grasp. And if Quebecers have no immediate appetite for secessionist speak, then what better credentials to flaunt than a new PQ leadership that knows how to spin knowing how to deal with Mr. Harper?

Surely among the private whispers there will be just the right amount of Ottawa-bashing to keep the restless Nationalists at bay. It's hardly unthinkable for both leaders to extract from one another a set of unwritten concessions each can count upon in, oh say, 7 to 12 months? Mr. Duceppe must in the same breath be perceived as a Quebec nationalist who can get what he wants from Ottawa, and in a way Mr. Dumont and Charest can only fantasize about, while at the same time Mr. Harper needs Mr. Duceppe's subliminal blessing either on the way out, during the next federal election, or both.

Mr. Duceppe has to be thinking longer term. Is he better to try and negotiate a nation within Canada - which this time has teeth - with the father of the clarity act, or the guy who at least gave it a good fake and whose own home province, Alberta, has equal, if not stronger, secessionist sentiments?

Look therefore for a Quebec vote that doesn't succumb, but is steered.

The most worried provincial politician in Quebec - - is likely the guy wondering if he ever should have made the trip.  

 

May 9, 2007  

*** Press Release click here ***  May 4, 2007 -  Canadians want vastly different seat distribution in House of Commons, poll shows

Where will the Bloc vote go?