For a time Phil Mickelson was the best golfer to never win a major which is a feeling John Tory has to be experiencing today.
Like Phil, poor decision-making near crunch time is what has kept John Tory out of the electoral winner’s circle. In 2007 it was a gamble on faith-based school funding. In 2009 Tory learned that bullying a popular local incumbent out of her seat is a decision, unlike the faith-based faux-pas, that can’t be recoiled mid-campaign with any greater degree of success.
After the 2007 general election Mr. Tory narrowly maintained his hold on the leadership of the Ontario Conservatives for much the same reason Gilles Duceppes waltzed back into position after momentarily resigning to try and lead the Parti Québécois; there was nobody else, of significance, in waiting.
That was Strike 1, or in the opinion of some, Strike 2 if you include the failed Toronto mayoralty bid in 2003. Regardless, the one correct decision Mr. Tory has today made is to not make matters worse – for himself – by attempting to cling to power at a time when time itself would be his greatest enemy. Incidentally, a lesson Mr. Dion refused to learn.
The thing that makes this all so difficult to understand is John Tory is such a good listener and good listeners don’t often make such crucial and repeated mistakes. In 2007 I alluded to this briefly in Faith based school funding meets “Gros Jos”. This begs the question if Mr. Tory hasn’t been listening to his own gut, who’s he been listening to?
As the shock subsides, as the dust settles, and as long periods of pondering lead to clearer thinking, I believe Mr. Tory will one day conclude that failing to listen to his own instincts, the ones that served him well in business, is what has prevented him from realizing that, which on paper, was supposed to be a shoe-in political career.
Some politicians have great advisors they ignore. Others have advisors they should never have hired.
For Dalton McGuinty, Mr. Tory’s political misfortune could not have come at a better time. Earlier this week Mr. McGuinty’s government announced a deficit increase over two years to the tune of $18 Billion. Justified or comparable or not to what other governments are doing is irrelevant. The threat Mr. Tory represented to Mr. McGuinty once in the legislature is not dissimilar to what Mr. Harper faces in Mr. Ignatieff versus Mr. Dion. Last night’s biggest winner was not Rick Johnson but rather the reprieve given to Mr. McGuinty.
Without a doubt Mr. Tory’s political career isn’t over even if, for a period, he has to spend some time in the penalty box. If other lesser politicians can reincarnate – the list is too long to enumerate here – then surely John Tory is a candidate for some future resurrection. Perhaps Federally.
For an electorate that is often characterized as cynical and apathetic, it is perhaps more accurate to conclude those paying attention and those who form the basis of public opinion, their impact on political outcome is a force to be reckoned with. Mr. Harper nearly met with that fate last fall. Mr. Tory has had it served to him, twice now, on a platter.
There is a very important lesson to be learned in the way political landscapes have ebbed and flowed the past 3-4 years. It’s never been more important to properly gauge public opinion before, not after the fact. Failing to do so has never been so unforgiving.