I have only once been up-close, but not so personal, with Stephen Harper. It was at the foot of the stairs he uses in foyer of the House of Commons to go back up to his office after Question Period.
Unplanned, I found myself supplanted at the front of a media scrum standing two feet in front of him. I went with it.
That’s when I first noticed it. The man doesn’t blink, literally. I don’t mean he doesn’t scare easily – he may do that too – I mean he doesn’t much blink his eyes.
I see this all the time in people when they are unusually focused on something; someone watching a particularly suspenseful part in a movie, an NHL hockey player just after an intense shift watching teammates carry-on … etc.
Under normal conditions we all have our regular blink rhythm. The rate at which we blink is driven by two factors; the dryness of our eyes and changes in thought patterns. Without getting too detailed, if you imagine the spoken word as text most people blink wherever there is a comma, a period, a change in paragraph, or the need to take a breath. Rex Murphy blinks a lot.
When we speak to something we are unsure of, uncommitted to, or nervous about most people blink more than usual. Martin Lindstrom may use fMRI. Poor me, I still just rely on gut-instinct and a little neuro-linguistic programming.
Mr. Harper, whom I have taken the time to observe, to this day still blinks very little. Even during the recent leader’s debates where he was being attacked 4-1, he maintained his trademark calm-and-cool composure, and blinked only marginally more than usual. Interpretation … he was still in his element, prepared, anticipated the attacks, and felt mostly confident in the outcome that would result from the performance he would give.
Fast-forward two months and consider what’s happened in the past 48 hours. Carefully watch Mr. Harper respond to “coalition government plans.” Click the above image of Mr. Harper to view it for yourself. Two things I noticed; the significant increase in the number of times Mr. Harper blinked his eyes and rocked his body side-to-side. In both instances, drastically more than usual.
In short, for the first time since January 2006 we may be witnessing Mr. Harper’s first honest-to-goodness blink. Much as I predicted here two days ago, this truly is unchartered territory for Mr. Harper. This is the first time someone has changed his script in a significant manner and without warning.
One week ago on At Issue it didn’t register with most most people when Peter Mansbridge asked the panel what Steven Harper would do in the next few months. My old boss, Allan Gregg, quipped “whatever he wants.” Allan was absolutely correct. 48 Hours ago Stephen Harper, in his own mind, thought he could get away with doing anything he wanted for at least the next 6-12 months.
Those conditions turned 180 degrees on Wednesday of this week. Accustomed to Dion hand-sitting and abstention, never did Mr. Harper or anyone else see this coming. Frankly, I don’t think opposition parties saw it coming or knew they even had it in them to carry-out. None of what they – in particular Mr. Ignatieff – did on Wednesday was planned in advance. It simply happened like a typical 2nd degree murder scenario. Involuntary players caught up in a moment.
Following the blink – read as the remouval of the party tax credit from Mr. Flaherty’s package – the more significant blink would come yesterday when coalition forces didn’t let-up. For a moment I thought they might recoil and prove the Conservatives right that opposition parties were only interested in the more self-serving interests as defined by the tax credit.
Kudos to opposition strategists for recognizing the stakes for what they were and for not making the mistake of painting an image of Mr. Ignatieff as Stéphane Dion part-deux.
It came as no surprise to me yesterday when Mr. Harper took to the microphone, that from blink time we moved into think time and hence the pushing back by one week the mounting drama that would have unfolded on Monday.
Mr. Harper’s spin was predictable and the think time he has imposed is a strategy for allowing him to try and gather his thoughts and to try and effect, or hope for, another change in the channel. In short, with under two minutes to go in the third period with the losing team dramatically evening the score and gaining momentum, Mr. Harper called a time-out hoping to disturb inertia and reverse course.
Mr. Harper needs data. Polling data to tell him what-the-heck just happened, and, if he’s lucky shaped public opinion data he can use to shape it further. It’s an art few understand, let alone know how to do.
Which brings us to stink time. Prepare yourself for polling data in the next few days the likes of which will be just different enough to feed the monster – the monster being those of us who manufacture an feed off this stuff – who in turn like to analyze and spin the results in which ever manner and direction makes a story, pays the bills, or advances an agenda. Hence the smell.
It’s a big game of chess, the complexity of which is far greater than it needs to be. So caught up are some of the players, they completely miss doing the simple things first or right. Case in point, the coalition is dead or wont achieve its long term potential so long as it allows Mr. Dion, figuratively or otherwise, to remain at he helm. This is not an attack on the man personally. I have met him and I have chatted with him one-on-one. He is the decent person he appears to be. But he is also the caricature Mr. Harper and his team very successfully manufactured. Reality is perception.
Listen carefully to Mr. Harper yesterday and in the days ahead and count two things; how many times he blinks and how many times he refers to Mr. Dion. Only one of those counts may decrease.
If Mr. Harper goes back to not blinking so much, you’ll know the opposition parties didn’t pull their goalie soon enough.
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Update: A comedic must read, Rick Mercer’s Like a trip to Baskin Robbins.