In my last post I wrote “Granted anything and everything can and does seem to happen in politics today as compared to 10-15 years ago. So who’s to say it’s completely impossible, if the economy continues to tank as my friend Garth says it will, the country won’t be ready to kiss the feet of a new Liberal saviour? If history is any guide, this may in fact be the true meaning of a new Liberal hope.”

I won’t pretend to suggest I foresaw the events of today. I didn’t. The events of today didn’t cross my mind until I was following them around 5 pm. However, it sure proves my point how fast things change today compared to 10 Years ago.

What I like best about events like today is watching pundits trying to predict what’s going to happen over the next few days without the benefit of fresh polling data to guide us, or the think time we need to gauge, for ourselves, the direction of public consensus.

Truth is, nobody knows, for certain, what’s going to happen in the next 24-72 hours. But here is my take.

In an instant, the tables may have turned on Mr. Harper in terms of who’s in position to make political power plays. While to date Mr. Harper has been the master of spin and has, since the election of 2006, managed to turn most negatives into positives, in this instance it may be asking too much.

But don’t count Mr. Harper out, yet. The political party tax credit and the right to strike among public servants is marketable to Canadians as “only the right thing to be doing during tough economic times.” There are numerous other arguments the Conservatives can use. However, it can also just as easily be positioned for what it really is, disproportionately cutting the flow of oxygen [money] to your competitors.

If Mr. Harper is forced to back down, or if he does not back down and the opposition parties call his bluff, then who, for a change, may be perceived as the figurative political wimp?

I am somewhat astonished by the behind-the-scenes shell game Mr. Ignatieff has played today since about 4:30 pm. While he hasn’t said anything substantive in terms of what economic stimulus Liberals would introduce, much less its costs, Mr. Ignatieff nevertheless has everyone thinking he’s the new Liberal leader.

Was Bob Rae even interviewed?

Of the three most likely outcomes, an election, a coalition, or Mr. Harper backing down, my gut tells me Mr. Harper will be first to blink, albeit with copious amounts of spin.

The noticeably absent option is Liberal party blinking or abstention. No way is that going to happen under Mr. Ignatieff’s watch. Obviously Mr. Ignatieff’s strategy hails from the notion of a “best defense is a strong offence.” A strategy and approach I generally favour. Suddenly the Liberal leadership is perceived to have gonads, even if for some people it’s over a silly issue that could backfire.

No way are we heading to the polls, although an Ignatieff/Layton coalition seems as impossible to me as the title Prime Minister Layton, or Duceppe.

Finally, does this mean if a coalition does indeed materialize, and if Elizabeth May had not run in Central Nova, she might have been Environment minister this time next week?