Being as impatient as I am, and I am, I didn’t want to wait the “up to 28 days” it may take for Elections Canada to post final-validated results for last week’s federal election.
So, tapping into the Type A portion of my personality, I downloaded Election Canada’s horribly organized text-file which is a mix of both preliminary and validated results as at October 18, 2008. And from that created a series of spreadsheets to serve as reference points for the analysis below.
First, a 22 inch monitor snapshot of all 308 ridings sorted by seats won by the five major parties and two independents, appears here.
At one time, there was a plan for that spreadsheet to contain a list of seats the Green Party would win. Instead, Elizabeth May decided to run against Peter McKay in Central Nova.
The next interesting analysis consists of the 21 ridings Liberals would have won if the Liberal and Green vote were combined. Presumably these are among the 21 ridings Elizabeth May is ‘no longer able to live with herself for having done something to help re-elect Stephen Harper.’
| Legend: | Liberal + Green would have won | ||||||||||||||
| Riding | Won | Name | CON | LIB | NDP | GRN | BQ | Total | Win % | L+G | L+G Win | L+G % | |||
| Saanich–Gulf Isl | CON | Gary Lunn | 27,991 | 25,366 | 3,667 | 6,742 | 63,766 | 43.9% | 32,108 | 1 | 50.4% | ||||
| Kitchener–Water | CON | Peter Braid | 21,851 | 21,803 | 8,920 | 7,329 | 59,903 | 36.5% | 29,132 | 1 | 48.6% | ||||
| Mississauga–Erin | CON | Bob Dechert | 23,863 | 23,466 | 4,774 | 3,636 | 55,739 | 42.8% | 27,102 | 1 | 48.6% | ||||
| Oak Ridges–Mar | CON | Paul Calandra | 32,028 | 31,483 | 7,126 | 5,184 | 75,821 | 42.2% | 36,667 | 1 | 48.4% | ||||
| North Vancouver | CON | Andrew Saxton | 24,371 | 21,551 | 5,417 | 6,168 | 57,507 | 42.4% | 27,719 | 1 | 48.2% | ||||
| Egmont | CON | Gail Shea | 8,122 | 8,060 | 1,670 | 626 | 18,478 | 44.0% | 8,686 | 1 | 47.0% | ||||
| London West | CON | Ed Holder | 22,556 | 20,435 | 8,409 | 5,630 | 57,030 | 39.6% | 26,065 | 1 | 45.7% | ||||
| Ottawa–Orléans | CON | Royal Galipeau | 27,206 | 23,504 | 6,127 | 3,833 | 60,670 | 44.8% | 27,337 | 1 | 45.1% | ||||
| Kitchener Centre | CON | Stephen Woodwor | 16,480 | 16,141 | 8,122 | 3,823 | 44,566 | 37.0% | 19,964 | 1 | 44.8% | ||||
| Trinity–Spadina | NDP | Olivia Chow | 8,249 | 20,970 | 24,454 | 5,418 | 59,091 | 41.4% | 26,388 | 1 | 44.7% | ||||
| Saint John | CON | Rodney Weston | 13,782 | 13,285 | 5,560 | 1,888 | 34,515 | 39.9% | 15,173 | 1 | 44.0% | ||||
| West Nova | CON | Greg Kerr | 16,779 | 15,185 | 7,097 | 2,106 | 41,167 | 40.8% | 17,291 | 1 | 42.0% | ||||
| Ahuntsic | BQ | Maria Mourani | 4,935 | 18,395 | 4,289 | 1,240 | 18,537 | 47,396 | 39.1% | 19,635 | 1 | 41.4% | |||
| Haute-Gaspésie | BQ | Jean-Yves Roy | 5,743 | 11,368 | 1,497 | 1,139 | 11,977 | 31,724 | 37.8% | 12,507 | 1 | 39.4% | |||
| Sudbury | NDP | Glenn Thibeault | 11,073 | 12,984 | 15,050 | 3,321 | 42,428 | 35.5% | 16,305 | 1 | 38.4% | ||||
| Nunavut | CON | Leona Aglukkaq | 2,806 | 2,359 | 2,228 | 675 | 8,068 | 34.8% | 3,034 | 1 | 37.6% | ||||
| Jeanne-Le Ber | BQ | Thierry St-Cyr | 5,494 | 15,841 | 7,708 | 2,345 | 17,144 | 48,532 | 35.3% | 18,186 | 1 | 37.5% | |||
| Brome–Missisq | BQ | Christian Ouellet | 9,309 | 16,357 | 4,514 | 1,784 | 17,561 | 49,525 | 35.5% | 18,141 | 1 | 36.6% | |||
| Vancouver Kings | NDP | Don Davies | 12,419 | 13,164 | 15,933 | 3,031 | 44,547 | 35.8% | 16,195 | 1 | 36.4% | ||||
| Brossard–La Prai | BQ | Marcel Lussier | 11,090 | 19,100 | 7,477 | 1,840 | 19,202 | 58,709 | 32.7% | 20,940 | 1 | 35.7% | |||
| Welland | NDP | Malcolm Allen | 16,542 | 14,295 | 16,842 | 2,816 | 50,495 | 33.4% | 17,111 | 1 | 33.9% | ||||
In addition, who’s to say that a concerted campaign effort where the message wasn’t so confusing could not have resulted in more seats going Liberal, notwithstanding the man at the helm. For that, we add the 18 ridings where the Liberal + Green vote was within 5% of the winning margin. Surely 5% isn’t too far of a stretch for having clear communication. Note the appearance on this list of John Baird, Environment Minister within 2.5%.
| Legend: | Liberal + Green: within 5% | |||||||||||||
| Riding | Won | Name | CON | LIB | NDP | GRN | BQ | Total | Win % | L+G | L+G % | LG < 5% | ||
| Haldimand–Norf | CON | Diane Finley | 19,657 | 15,577 | 5,549 | 2,041 | 42,824 | 45.9% | 17,618 | 41.1% | 4.8% | |||
| Thornhill | CON | Peter Kent | 26,660 | 21,448 | 3,601 | 2,686 | 54,395 | 49.0% | 24,134 | 44.4% | 4.6% | |||
| Halton | CON | Lisa Raitt | 32,986 | 25,136 | 6,118 | 4,872 | 69,112 | 47.7% | 30,008 | 43.4% | 4.3% | |||
| Newmarket–Au | CON | Lois Brown | 24,873 | 18,250 | 4,548 | 4,381 | 52,052 | 47.8% | 22,631 | 43.5% | 4.3% | |||
| Thunder Bay–R | NDP | John Rafferty | 8,466 | 11,589 | 14,473 | 1,377 | 35,905 | 40.3% | 12,966 | 36.1% | 4.2% | |||
| Kenora | CON | Greg Rickford | 9,335 | 7,368 | 5,375 | 1,078 | 23,156 | 40.3% | 8,446 | 36.5% | 3.8% | |||
| Ottawa Centre | NDP | Paul Dewar | 15,065 | 16,633 | 25,399 | 6,348 | 63,445 | 40.0% | 22,981 | 36.2% | 3.8% | |||
| West Vancouver | CON | John Weston | 26,826 | 15,978 | 8,565 | 8,644 | 60,013 | 44.7% | 24,622 | 41.0% | 3.7% | |||
| Pontiac | CON | Lawrence Can | 14,023 | 10,396 | 6,616 | 2,148 | 9,576 | 42,759 | 32.8% | 12,544 | 29.3% | 3.5% | ||
| Ottawa West– | CON | John Baird | 25,109 | 20,161 | 6,432 | 3,552 | 55,254 | 45.4% | 23,713 | 42.9% | 2.5% | |||
| Toronto–Danfo | NDP | Jack Layton | 5,287 | 13,336 | 20,323 | 5,995 | 44,941 | 45.2% | 19,331 | 43.0% | 2.2% | |||
| Outremont | NDP | Thomas Mulcair | 3,820 | 12,005 | 14,348 | 1,566 | 4,554 | 36,293 | 39.5% | 13,571 | 37.4% | 2.1% | ||
| Brant | CON | Phil McColeman | 22,736 | 17,943 | 9,331 | 3,814 | 53,824 | 42.2% | 21,757 | 40.4% | 1.8% | |||
| Thunder Bay–S | NDP | Bruce Hyer | 9,556 | 10,083 | 13,174 | 2,463 | 35,276 | 37.3% | 12,546 | 35.6% | 1.8% | |||
| Oakville | CON | Terence Young | 26,011 | 20,528 | 4,143 | 4,681 | 55,363 | 47.0% | 25,209 | 45.5% | 1.4% | |||
| Miramichi | CON | Tilly O’Neill-Go | 12,058 | 10,590 | 4,904 | 1,105 | 28,657 | 42.1% | 11,695 | 40.8% | 1.3% | |||
| Gatineau | BQ | Richard Nadeau | 8,762 | 13,193 | 13,612 | 1,342 | 15,189 | 52,098 | 29.2% | 14,535 | 27.9% | 1.3% | ||
| Fredericton | CON | Keith Ashfield | 17,962 | 13,319 | 6,490 | 4,293 | 42,064 | 42.7% | 17,612 | 41.9% | 0.8% | |||
Finally and in fairness, Jack Layton never said “anyone but Harper” so it should come as no surprise by that narrower view of the world, that picking up eight more seats is likely the NDP’s preferred outcome. However, combining Liberal, Green, and NDP votes results in 63 ridings that would not have gone Conservative (54) or Bloc (9).
| Legend: | Liberal + Green + NDP would have won | |||||||||||||
| Riding | Won | Name | CON | LIB | NDP | GRN | BQ | Total | Win % | L+G+N | LGN Win | LGN % | ||
| Nunavut | CON | Leona Aglukkaq | 2,806 | 2,359 | 2,228 | 675 | 8,068 | 34.8% | 5,262 | 1 | 65.2% | |||
| Kitchener–Waterloo | CON | Peter Braid | 21,851 | 21,803 | 8,920 | 7,329 | 59,903 | 36.5% | 38,052 | 1 | 63.5% | |||
| South Shore–St. Marg | CON | Gerald Keddy | 14,388 | 9,536 | 13,456 | 2,090 | 39,470 | 36.5% | 25,082 | 1 | 63.5% | |||
| Kitchener Centre | CON | Stephen Woodwo | 16,480 | 16,141 | 8,122 | 3,823 | 44,566 | 37.0% | 28,086 | 1 | 63.0% | |||
| London West | CON | Ed Holder | 22,556 | 20,435 | 8,409 | 5,630 | 57,030 | 39.6% | 34,474 | 1 | 60.4% | |||
| Saint John | CON | Rodney Weston | 13,782 | 13,285 | 5,560 | 1,888 | 34,515 | 39.9% | 20,733 | 1 | 60.1% | |||
| Essex | CON | Jeff Watson | 20,608 | 14,973 | 13,703 | 2,234 | 51,518 | 40.0% | 30,910 | 1 | 60.0% | |||
| Kenora | CON | Greg Rickford | 9,335 | 7,368 | 5,375 | 1,078 | 23,156 | 40.3% | 13,821 | 1 | 59.7% | |||
| West Nova | CON | Greg Kerr | 16,779 | 15,185 | 7,097 | 2,106 | 41,167 | 40.8% | 24,388 | 1 | 59.2% | |||
| Surrey North | CON | Dona Cadman | 13,714 | 5,227 | 12,608 | 1,925 | 33,474 | 41.0% | 19,760 | 1 | 59.0% | |||
| Oshawa | CON | Colin Carrie | 19,951 | 7,741 | 16,750 | 3,374 | 47,816 | 41.7% | 27,865 | 1 | 58.3% | |||
| Miramichi | CON | Tilly O’Neill-Gord | 12,058 | 10,590 | 4,904 | 1,105 | 28,657 | 42.1% | 16,599 | 1 | 57.9% | |||
| Brant | CON | Phil McColeman | 22,736 | 17,943 | 9,331 | 3,814 | 53,824 | 42.2% | 31,088 | 1 | 57.8% | |||
| Oak Ridges–Markham | CON | Paul Calandra | 32,028 | 31,483 | 7,126 | 5,184 | 75,821 | 42.2% | 43,793 | 1 | 57.8% | |||
| North Vancouver | CON | Andrew Saxton | 24,371 | 21,551 | 5,417 | 6,168 | 57,507 | 42.4% | 33,136 | 1 | 57.6% | |||
| Fredericton | CON | Keith Ashfield | 17,962 | 13,319 | 6,490 | 4,293 | 42,064 | 42.7% | 24,102 | 1 | 57.3% | |||
| Mississauga–Erindale | CON | Bob Dechert | 23,863 | 23,466 | 4,774 | 3,636 | 55,739 | 42.8% | 31,876 | 1 | 57.2% | |||
| Saanich–Gulf Islands | CON | Gary Lunn | 27,991 | 25,366 | 3,667 | 6,742 | 63,766 | 43.9% | 35,775 | 1 | 56.1% | |||
| Egmont | CON | Gail Shea | 8,122 | 8,060 | 1,670 | 626 | 18,478 | 44.0% | 10,356 | 1 | 56.0% | |||
| Palliser | CON | Ray Boughen | 14,159 | 5,489 | 10,865 | 1,580 | 32,093 | 44.1% | 17,934 | 1 | 55.9% | |||
| Fleetwood–Port Kells | CON | Nina Grewal | 21,389 | 12,502 | 10,916 | 3,045 | 47,852 | 44.7% | 26,463 | 1 | 55.3% | |||
| West Vancouver–Sunsh | CON | John Weston | 26,826 | 15,978 | 8,565 | 8,644 | 60,013 | 44.7% | 33,187 | 1 | 55.3% | |||
| Ottawa–Orléans | CON | Royal Galipeau | 27,206 | 23,504 | 6,127 | 3,833 | 60,670 | 44.8% | 33,464 | 1 | 55.2% | |||
| Ottawa West–Nepean | CON | John Baird | 25,109 | 20,161 | 6,432 | 3,552 | 55,254 | 45.4% | 30,145 | 1 | 54.6% | |||
| Huron–Bruce | CON | Ben Lobb | 22,182 | 16,336 | 7,426 | 2,617 | 48,561 | 45.7% | 26,379 | 1 | 54.3% | |||
| Haldimand–Norfolk | CON | Diane Finley | 19,657 | 15,577 | 5,549 | 2,041 | 42,824 | 45.9% | 23,167 | 1 | 54.1% | |||
| Saskatoon–Rosetown | CON | Kelly Block | 12,231 | 1,188 | 11,969 | 1,232 | 26,620 | 45.9% | 14,389 | 1 | 54.1% | |||
| Kamloops–Thompso | CON | Cathy McLeod | 25,109 | 5,445 | 19,620 | 4,430 | 54,604 | 46.0% | 29,495 | 1 | 54.0% | |||
| St. Catharines | CON | Rick Dykstra | 23,474 | 14,652 | 9,428 | 3,477 | 51,031 | 46.0% | 27,557 | 1 | 54.0% | |||
| Gatineau | BQ | Richard Nadeau | 8,762 | 13,193 | 13,612 | 1,342 | 15,189 | 52,098 | 29.2% | 28,147 | 1 | 54.0% | ||
| Vancouver Island North | CON | John Duncan | 26,166 | 2,391 | 23,681 | 4,563 | 56,801 | 46.1% | 30,635 | 1 | 53.9% | |||
| Saint Boniface | CON | Shelly Glover | 19,440 | 14,728 | 5,502 | 2,104 | 41,774 | 46.5% | 22,334 | 1 | 53.5% | |||
| Ancaster–Dundas–Fla | CON | David Sweet | 26,297 | 15,322 | 9,632 | 5,149 | 56,400 | 46.6% | 30,103 | 1 | 53.4% | |||
| Jeanne-Le Ber | BQ | Thierry St-Cyr | 5,494 | 15,841 | 7,708 | 2,345 | 17,144 | 48,532 | 35.3% | 25,894 | 1 | 53.4% | ||
| Niagara Falls | CON | Rob Nicholson | 24,016 | 13,867 | 9,186 | 4,356 | 51,425 | 46.7% | 27,409 | 1 | 53.3% | |||
| Nanaimo–Alberni | CON | James Lunney | 28,959 | 5,586 | 19,687 | 7,467 | 61,699 | 46.9% | 32,740 | 1 | 53.1% | |||
| Oakville | CON | Terence Young | 26,011 | 20,528 | 4,143 | 4,681 | 55,363 | 47.0% | 29,352 | 1 | 53.0% | |||
| Glengarry–Prescott–R | CON | Pierre Lemieux | 25,659 | 19,997 | 5,674 | 2,908 | 54,238 | 47.3% | 28,579 | 1 | 52.7% | |||
| Central Nova | CON | Peter MacKay | 18,240 | 7,659 | 12,620 | 38,519 | 47.4% | 20,279 | 1 | 52.6% | ||||
| Desnethé–Missinippi- | CON | Rob Clarke | 8,964 | 5,816 | 3,412 | 735 | 18,927 | 47.4% | 9,963 | 1 | 52.6% | |||
| Peterborough | CON | Dean Del Mastro | 27,630 | 18,417 | 8,115 | 4,029 | 58,191 | 47.5% | 30,561 | 1 | 52.5% | |||
| Halton | CON | Lisa Raitt | 32,986 | 25,136 | 6,118 | 4,872 | 69,112 | 47.7% | 36,126 | 1 | 52.3% | |||
| Newmarket–Aurora | CON | Lois Brown | 24,873 | 18,250 | 4,548 | 4,381 | 52,052 | 47.8% | 27,179 | 1 | 52.2% | |||
| Chatham-Kent–Essex | CON | Dave Van Kester | 19,960 | 12,127 | 6,850 | 2,712 | 41,649 | 47.9% | 21,689 | 1 | 52.1% | |||
| Bruce–Grey–Owen So | CON | Larry Miller | 22,974 | 6,892 | 4,640 | 13,095 | 47,601 | 48.3% | 24,627 | 1 | 51.7% | |||
| Burlington | CON | Mike Wallace | 28,614 | 19,577 | 6,597 | 4,083 | 58,871 | 48.6% | 30,257 | 1 | 51.4% | |||
| Cambridge | CON | Gary Goodyear | 24,895 | 11,977 | 10,044 | 4,279 | 51,195 | 48.6% | 26,300 | 1 | 51.4% | |||
| Northumberland–Quint | CON | Rick Norlock | 27,615 | 16,209 | 8,230 | 4,633 | 56,687 | 48.7% | 29,072 | 1 | 51.3% | |||
| Thornhill | CON | Peter Kent | 26,660 | 21,448 | 3,601 | 2,686 | 54,395 | 49.0% | 27,735 | 1 | 51.0% | |||
| Perth–Wellington | CON | Gary Ralph Schel | 20,709 | 10,225 | 7,324 | 3,884 | 42,142 | 49.1% | 21,433 | 1 | 50.9% | |||
| Winnipeg South | CON | Rod Bruinooge | 19,943 | 14,108 | 4,671 | 1,936 | 40,658 | 49.1% | 20,715 | 1 | 50.9% | |||
| Edmonton Centre | CON | Laurie Hawn | 22,634 | 12,661 | 6,912 | 3,746 | 45,953 | 49.3% | 23,319 | 1 | 50.7% | |||
| Kitchener–Conestoga | CON | Harold Albrecht | 23,525 | 11,876 | 7,173 | 5,124 | 47,698 | 49.3% | 24,173 | 1 | 50.7% | |||
| Elgin–Middlesex–London | CON | Joe Preston | 22,970 | 11,169 | 9,135 | 3,241 | 46,515 | 49.4% | 23,545 | 1 | 50.6% | |||
| Ahuntsic | BQ | Maria Mourani | 4,935 | 18,395 | 4,289 | 1,240 | 18,537 | 47,396 | 39.1% | 23,924 | 1 | 50.5% | ||
| Simcoe North | CON | Bruce Stanton | 26,328 | 14,670 | 6,207 | 5,820 | 53,025 | 49.7% | 26,697 | 1 | 50.3% | |||
| Brossard–La Prairie | BQ | Marcel Lussier | 11,090 | 19,100 | 7,477 | 1,840 | 19,202 | 58,709 | 32.7% | 28,417 | 1 | 48.4% | ||
| Saint-Lambert | BQ | Josée Beaudin | 6,867 | 12,383 | 6,280 | 1,566 | 16,346 | 43,442 | 37.6% | 20,229 | 1 | 46.6% | ||
| Brome–Missisquoi | BQ | Christian Ouellet | 9,309 | 16,357 | 4,514 | 1,784 | 17,561 | 49,525 | 35.5% | 22,655 | 1 | 45.7% | ||
| Pontiac | CON | Lawrence Cannon | 14,023 | 10,396 | 6,616 | 2,148 | 9,576 | 42,759 | 32.8% | 19,160 | 1 | 44.8% | ||
| Alfred-Pellan | BQ | Robert Carrier | 8,662 | 15,594 | 6,406 | 1,665 | 20,686 | 53,013 | 39.0% | 23,665 | 1 | 44.6% | ||
| Haute-Gaspésie–La Mi | BQ | Jean-Yves Roy | 5,743 | 11,368 | 1,497 | 1,139 | 11,977 | 31,724 | 37.8% | 14,004 | 1 | 44.1% | ||
| Laval | BQ | Nicole Demers | 9,101 | 14,190 | 6,289 | 1,607 | 19,085 | 50,272 | 38.0% | 22,086 | 1 | 43.9% | ||
I have argued at length on this space that vote-splitting would re-elect the Conservatives, and it did as shown above.
Taking the analysis a step further, on October 15 I posted a graphic showing the differences between the 2006 election, the number of seats for each party Canadians would have preferred on October 14, as well as the recent election outcome. So long as Canada does not have some sort of Proportional Representation, why not consider an outcome that combines Liberal, NDP, and Green votes under one party banner, assuming the Bloc would have none of it. Here is what that graphic would look like:
Safe to assume the Left prefers, as Tom Flanagan so eloquently put it, “10-12 years of Harper-land” before it considers a merge.