When the decision was made to exclude Elizabeth May from the leaders’ debates I wrote the following in my September 9th blog; “Expect the Green Party vote to recoil between now and October 14. The many months of predictions by this observer of the impact of vote-spitting among the non-Conservative parties will still occur, but it won’t be as significant now that Elizabeth May has effectively served to take herself out. Still expect to see a Harper majority.”
It is important to note, yesterday the Consortium did not suddenly have a change of heart and decide that having Elizabeth May in the debates was the right thing to do anymore than prior to that the Consortium thought it was the wrong thing to do.
The Consortium was always very clear from the start; it never wanted to be the story of this or any election. Moreover the Consortium did not want to stand accused of discriminating for or against the Green Party. It’s not the Consortium’s place to prevent or provide a platform whereby a Party can increase or decrease its popularity. In the best case scenario the Consortium facilitates a consensus all Parties are happy with. In the worst case scenario it makes a difficult decision that it takes very seriously and in non-partisan fashion.
Yesterday the Consortium did not reverse an erred decision. Indeed, it is Mr. Harper who finally figured out the math and the distinct advantage for the Conservative Party by having Elizabeth May in the debates. Accordingly Mr. Harper, once he was presented with and understood the strategic benefit, changed is mind. Suddenly the Consortium found itself swimming in the previously stated best-case-scenario, a consensus. That’s what happened, not what spin-doctors would have you believe.
The victory lap Greens are today celebrating could be short-lived. Replay the tapes from Elizabeth May’s 2007 year-end One-on-One interview with CBC’s Peter Mansbridge. In response to the question about a choice between a few Green seats, personal victory for its Leader, but a Harper government versus no green seats, a personal loss in Central Nova, and a Dion government, Elizabeth May was stoic in quickly choosing the latter. Time will judge if the response was genuine or clever.
Don’t get me wrong, if Elizabeth May debates the candidates and exposes the issues the way she did in London, Mr. Harper could experience a political undressing the likes of which he is not expecting. However, for every Conservative vote the Green Party might attract as a result of a strong Elizabeth May performance, the Liberals and NDP will easily lose double or triple that count to the Greens. The question is, how many votes will that be, where, and in what concentration?
Upon close examination of second choice vote, the Green Party does not draw from the Conservative pool of votes nearly as much as they do from opposition parties. At last count, there were 32 ridings in which the split vote between Greens and Liberals resulted in a Conservative win. That figure is only likely to increase.
However, unlike the NDP, the Green vote is not concentrated in a few ridings. It is in fact widely distributed across the nation. True, there are pockets but to date never enough to garner a seat. This observer will be surprised if this election is any different although the popular vote will certainly be higher than 2006. Perhaps 9% which, if Elizabeth May gets her other wish, ‘that people don’t sleep through this election and will turn out in droves to vote’ will, if nothing else, significantly fill the pockets of a Green Party desperately short on funds.
By this time next week look for Green Party support nationally to be back in the 11-12% range, up from the current 9%. The immediate bump in the numbers will result from soft opposition voters who may now see a Green vote as less of a wasted vote. Hence, further evidence of vote-splitting among the non-Conservative parties should become more-and-more apparent as the weeks progress. Success at moving beyond 12% hinges on the debates. That was always the prize at stake.
Look as well for the sudden appearance of Conservative attack ads showing Elizabeth May figuratively pulling the plug on nuclear power plants sending the nation into a darkness as the troubled economy takes a back seat to, as Jeffery Simpson once referred to them, Eco-Nuts.
When this election is over, two for sure, but possibly four opposition parties will change leaders. And then, finally, the countdown will begin to how long it takes for the non-Conservative parties to fall under one tent as the only way they can mount a successful challenge against the Right. Reform, Alliance, Conservatives figured this out long ago. Until the Left does similarly Canada will be governed by the Right.
At the risk of looking too far ahead and speculating about who may be able to bridge the divide between Liberal, Green, NDP egos, might there be a Rae of hope?