Today Core Strategies released month two of its “Seat Distribution” polling analysis. My report is mostly reproduced below or you can retrieve a copy here.
On May 4 I reported the data from month one instinctively thinking the model would only get more-and-more interesting as time went on.
I never thought the findings would get this interesting this soon.
I hope you agree.
Before even the fallout over the G8 summit or the Bill Casey debacle over the budget, from May 31 to June 4 Core Strategies repeated the question asked of 1000 Canadians last month, namely; “if it was solely up to you, what number of seats for each of the major political parties do you think would be ideal?”
The results show the intensity of the Harper Conservatives grip within its own support base has waned 12% since the survey was last reported on in early May, while that of the Dion Liberals has risen 8%.
While voter intention between May and June has changed insignificantly, meaning Conservatives and Liberals are still deadlocked at ~30% each, what is significant is the shift in the underlying data that Core Strategies uses to measure how, and in what direction, voting patterns change.
In May 2007 Canadians indicated the ideal distribution of seats should consist of Conservatives and Liberals having 97 and 81 seats respectively. In June the seat distribution Canadians see as ideal between Conservatives and Liberals has shifted to 91 and 88 respectively, signifying a downward shift for Mr. Harper and upward tick for Mr. Dion.
More significant, however, is the movement occurring within party support. In this case Core Strategies predictive tool speaks loudly to the general impression that Mr. Harper’s government has lost some of its grip, even within its own support base.
In May Conservative voters wanted Mr. Harper to have 171 out of 308 seats. In June the sentiment tempered to 151 seats. Of further interest; much of the shift comes from Conservative voters wanting Mr. Dion to have 70 seats, up from 58 seats. By contrast, support within the Liberal support base has rallied, increasing from 125 to 136 seats.
While the Conservatives are still in a position of greater strength than Liberals – i.e., Conservative voters want 151 Conservative seats vs. Liberal voters want 136 Liberal seats – the data suggests a crack has formed in the intensity of the support that forms around Mr. Harper, whereas the support around Mr. Dion may be beginning to gel.
Other important factors related to this analysis include:
· The data indicates Canadians still don’t want either party to have a Majority. And for Mr. Harper, the gap between his and voters’ desire for Conservative majority has widened.
· The analysis does not suggest that if an election was held today that tides have necessarily changed leading to a change in government, although directionally a shift has occurred.
· Interestingly, in June the number of seats Canadians would like the NDP to have has also increased from 49 to 56 seats. The Green party however, did not fair so well where the number of seats Canadians would give to Greens is now 38 seats, down from 42. While the sample size of Green Party voters is dangerously small to draw confident conclusions, the number of seats Green Party voters would give to Liberals rose from 64 to 71 seats.
· In theory, it is possible within the model for the number of seats a voter assigns to any given party, including his/her own, could change significantly without necessarily resulting in a change in voting intention. For example a Conservative voter could in fact want a strong or a weak Liberal opposition without affecting his or her Conservative vote.
· However, while voting intentions change more slowly, the Core Strategies seat distribution model serves as a predictive tool to measure the “tipping point” in which a change in Canadians’ ideal seat distribution is used as an early detector of actual changes in voting intentions in the making. For example, it is highly unlikely that the number of seats Conservative voters give to their own party could continue to fall indefinitely, without there being an eventual and commensurate change in voting intention.
· Like other National opinion polls this study is not a riding-by-riding analysis, the kind necessary to predict a more exact election outcome. On a National level Core Strategies agrees the two main parties are still deadlocked at ~30%, however, the conditions necessary for a break in the deadlock have also begun to surface. There is, as yet, insufficient data to speculate on the magnitude and timing of the shift.
· June 2007 is only the second month this particular dataset has been collected. It is therefore too soon to say a trend has developed. At third or fourth data point along the same path may be required to say, with confidence, the direction observed between May and June is in fact a trend. Anecdotally, however, the data is consistent with the impression that increased numbers of Canadians are concerned with especially Mr. Harper’s style of governing, and that a peek under the Liberal hood has begun.
· The data from this survey was collected prior to a number of new and significant developments in the past week, including but not limited to the G8 summit, the budget vote, and the events surrounding Nova Scotia Conservative MP Bill Casey. In Core Strategies estimation the manner in which these events are being consumed, in and out of the Media, is likely – if Mr. Harper sticks to his current strategy – to result in further erosion in the intensity of Conservative support.
· The most recent Conservative attack ads were not simply less effective, there is growing qualitative evidence the attack-ad strategy may be beginning to backfire on Mr. Harper. In many circles the second round of unprovoked attack-ads are now perceived as having gone “over-the-top,” as Canadians are becoming less-and-less likely to see Mr. Dion as “not a leader,” but are more-and-more inclined to view Mr. Harper as a “bully,” with Mr. Dion perceived by some as having taken “the high road.” Left unchecked and on its current course, Canadians are, in a few months, more likely to find themselves more at odds with Mr. Harper on matters of policy and governing style.
· Finally, Core Strategies further expects the current session of Parliament will end early. Instinctively or otherwise, the Conservative government knows it is bleeding support, and that the bleeding is worse while Parliament is in session. Core Strategies therefore expects Mr. Harper will put this session of Parliament out of its own misery as soon as possible so that a “regrouping” can occur over the summer months. It will be interesting to monitor how support levels change between now and the fall and if Conservatives reincarnate, or simply change the wrapping.
Methodology
The study was conducted via CATI from dialing facilities in Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa. Data collection for this study was conducted between May 31st through June 4th, 2007. The sample size was 1000 interviews completed among randomly selected adults 18 years of age and older. The data is weighted in tabulation to replicate actual population distribution by age and sex within region according to the 2001 Census data. The margin of error on a sample of 1000 is +/- 3.1% 19 times out of 20.
The question posed was:
1. The Federal House of Commons is made up of 308 seats. To make the math easier, imagine the House of Commons is made up of only 100 seats. If it was solely up to you, what number of seats for each of the major political parties do you think would be ideal, between the: {read and rotate and then assist respondent in adding up to 100}
a. Conservatives
b. Liberals
c. Green
d. NDP
e. Bloc Quebecois