I must admit to being somewhat overwhelmed by the response to my last post, Dion, Layton and come what May; the road to a personally difficult decision. The email, the phone calls, the Toronto Star story, interviews, a smattering of online content, and a spike in visits to this website rivaling the traffic received during the London by-election.

One person suggested mine is perhaps not even a blog because I don’t offer a comments section. That may come.     

To the old adage “if you’re not part of the solution, then you’re part of the problem” I’ve thought to comment further. I seemingly had a hard time getting certain people to listen to my fee-based advice, perhaps now that it’s free-based we’ll get somewhere.

Well intentioned and constructive, there isn’t the slightest bit of angst or malice attached to what follows.

First and foremost, stop publicly saying there weren’t minions involved. There were. I was one of them. But my strong-strong advice to Mr. Dion and Ms. May, as offered before so it’s nothing new, stop listening to the minion on the Liberal side of the table, whose advice was followed over mine. You know who I am talking about.

Despite my warnings, I want desperately to believe you were led astray, and that you don’t truly believe last Friday’s announcement was the right political strategy. It wasn’t and I think this has proven itself, or will in the very near future.

Second, a certain amount of damage is already done. The emphasis now has to be placed on trying to repair that damage as fast and as effectively as possible. Might I suggest you focus on the fast part. Because if I am Mr. Harper, I am licking my chops trying to decide if I want to be Prime Minister of Canada’s 40th Parliament before, or after, the May long weekend. There is not a lot of time left if a near impossible turnaround is going to be achieved.

You can’t back out of the deal now. That would be like Conservatives pulling the ‘93 attack ads after a bit of squawking. Doing the equivalent might only serve as confirmation of the error in judgment. You also can’t turn back the clocks a few months and have Elizabeth run where I strongly advised she run, London.

Somehow the yardsticks have to move forward, even if by no other means than perceptually. Remember, you are not just managing what you are actually doing, you are also managing what the media – and therefore what the electorate – perceives you are doing. Working together to “save the planet” is a great idea, save where Mr. Harper and Mr. Layton can very successfully spin that you are doing something else. And you are.

Third, you also can’t go back to circa the end of January or beginning of February, before Mr. Dion’s numbers started to tank and follow my then advice which was, in light of the Greens failure to land Garth Turner, for Elizabeth to also join the Liberals with a good chance of becoming Environment Minister, or worse case scenario, environment critic for the official opposition.

Yes this would have resulted is some reputational hit for Elizabeth, and likely would have resulted in the Green Party imploding – as it will now anyway – but I also think Canadians would have been quick to see the upside. Better yet, it was the right thing to do both politically but especially for the Environment which is what I was led to believe this was all about. In fairness to the Liberal team, they were never the ones opposed to this idea.

I don’t yet have polling data to suggest Elizabeth May still, today, joining the Liberals is a good or bad idea, or if it’s too late to ask Canadians to swallow such a large Red-Green pill. On the other hand perhaps this is just the breath of clarity Canadians want and expect from the father of the Clarity Act.

For absolute certain, the status quo cannot prevail, because currently the quo has no status. Red and Green supporters are left with no clear direction on what they are supposed to do, and this only further feeds beast that Mr. Dion is somehow not a leader. Why would you knowingly hand Mr. Harper such a gift?

The objective, allegedly, was to unseat Mr. Harper as Prime Minister. Well, unless Mr. Dion is about to cross to the Green Party – which maybe given the wolves behind him isn’t such a far-fetched idea – Mr. Dion must tell all Liberals in all 307 ridings to vote Liberal.

And, if Ms. May is sincere in her statement that she wants to see Mr. Dion as Prime Minister over Mr. Harper, then she too must also tell all Greens to vote Red. If they both don’t do this, how else is Mr. Dion supposed to win more seats than Mr. Harper? Failing this, the state of confusion that has been created is only going to cause vote splitting which, taken to its logical conclusion, Mr. Harper has been handed a second gift, a Majority.

C’mon guys, this isn’t rocket-science. You didn’t need a 20+ year polling and political strategist to figure this out. Having one at your fingertips but ignoring the obvious and hollered advice is what all the head-scratching is about.

Fourth, Elizabeth you need to pull a rabbit out of the hat to win against Mr. MacKay. It will be difficult, perhaps even impossible. I have already previously outlined some of the campaign strategies you needed to start working the day after London. A hint from just this week? Watch the W5 special on the Ianiero’s. The manner in which especially Peter Mackay and the Conservative government dropped the ball on this one could be a first step toward winning Central Nova. Forget waiting for Jack Layton to return your call. Instead, call Anthony Ianiero, who according to W5 has not heard from Mr. MacKay. Investigate, follow-up, and report back on what Mr. MacKay and Mr. Harper have so far refused to do on this important file. This is but one of a dozen things you need to be doing, yesterday.

Fifth, the Leader’s Debates. This is a sad-sad turn of events. So sad that I hardly know what to advise. Given the effort and success that was going to see you in the leaders’ debates, losing that jewel, if that occurs, will be among the greatest achievements lost in the Greens bid to make positive political history.

Against my advice and as warned, by following the fantasy of the Liberal minion which last week saw you and Mr. Dion making the ill-advised public announcement, you give the Media Consortium good cause to hear and consider Mr. Harper’s and Mr. Layton’s reasons that you and Mr. Dion ought not be allowed to be a tag-team in the leaders’ debates. The argument will be, if two Liberals can be in the debates, why can’t Mr. Harper bring along a second Conservative of his choosing, at which point the stage really does become crowded.

Short of the Consortium feeling badly or taking pity on the bad advice you followed, or, still wanting great ratings, you may be fighting the next election from the wings.

Finally, to both leaders, stop thinking it’s still about unseating Mr. Harper. It’s no longer that. Now, for the sake of the Environment and a few other files, it’s about ensuring a Majority doesn’t happen. The new objective involves an entirely different strategy that you had better – at least privately – get your heads around. The electorate likes a minority. It’s as close to Proportional Representation as it will achieve in the next election. Just work on getting the proportions a little more representative.

Not to worry, short of anymore really bad blunders, if the numbers get too strong in favour of a Harper Majority, the numbers will correct themselves soon enough.

You need to time this. You need to effect this. You need to listen …

… to the right people.

 

 CBC Radio Interview: As It Happens: 07-04-17-cbc-as-it-happens-interview