I have a lot of respect for women who enter politics and who succeed in breaking the mold of the old-boys club without constantly making the statement that’s what they are doing. 

I don’t know Rona Ambrose. I’ve written about her only once before in Battered Minister Syndrome, which for some inexplicable reason I wanted to give her the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

On at least one level, she has to know, right? Please tell me she knows. If not, she’s set the clock back for many in her footsteps.

 

Stephen Harper shuffling Ms. Ambrose out of the environment portfolio is what speculatively dominated the news today, and will, for weeks to come. Haven’t seen too many of the so-called experts outside the inner-circle trying to predict one way or the other, and for good reason. Nobody knows. I certainly don’t, at least not for certain.

But I can, with a good degree of certainty, tell you why and what it will mean if Mr. Harper does or doesn’t shuffle the embattled minister.

If Mr. Harper does shuffle Ms. Ambrose, he may as well take out a honking-huge ad in the Globe and Mail that says ‘I made a mistake and now I am going to fix it.’  It’s under this scenario I’d expect to see Rona’s true colours, if she has any. It’s no secret the Clean Air Act wasn’t Rona’s idea. She’s been, in every sense of the word, Harper’s operative that’s done exactly as she was told. It’s why if Harper unceremoniously tosses the good soldier off the environment file, I’d expect to see at least some evidence of a spine, as in ‘Look bucko! I did everything you told me to do, don’t you dare hang me out to dry now.’

It wouldn’t matter what ‘folio she picked up instead, the underlying implied message would be loud-and-clear, that she, and she alone mucked-up, allowing Harper to save face for when the “get re-elected” environment plan is unveiled. After-all, in view of the Green party threat and the colour of the scarf the Liberal wears, Harper now has no choice but to announce the plan that would have assured him a majority had he done so from the start. To succeed the second time around, Harper needs a reason he didn’t do it right the first time. He simply can’t let Jack take credit in committee.

The question is, will Rona take one for the team and play Ollie North, or, speaking only metaphorically of course, is there a blue-stained dress she can use to pin the tail on the donkey? Don’t get me wrong, I completely get what the foot-soldier is supposed to do. But there’s still that inexplicable part, which for the sake of up-and-coming women behind her, she shouldn’t just stand there and take it. Conversely…

If Mr. Harper does NOT shuffle Ambrose off the environment, this would be more consistent with the impression I believe Mr. Harper has of himself … that he doesn’t make mistakes. For example, David Emerson and Michael Fortier weren’t mistakes. They were ‘command decisions, and therefore, unquestionably correct and that’s final.’

So how then with Ms. Ambrose still sitting in the big green chair does the PMO unveil a made-in-Canada Plan B that silences most critics and excuses the first attempt to appease Alberta? That’s easy, you just do it because Alberta isn’t going anywhere against blue, and for the new definition of ROC, you showcase the ideological sacrifice as evidence of what an open and conciliatory person Prime Minister Harper is after all on this, the issue which accordingly to polls is atop Canadian’s list of highest priorities.

So what’s my hunch?

Against conventional wisdom, my hunch is Rona stays put. First, Harper can’t chance that Rona actually has that look in her arsenal, and second, if à la Softwood Lumber excuse he needed the best-of-the best like he bought-off David Emerson, I don’t think that as a replacement for Rona, Elizabeth May is available. More to the point, Rona isn’t the problem!