January 23                                November 27

Lib (Fontana):   40.1                    Liberal: 34.9

Conservative:   29.9                    Green (May): 25.9

NDP:                23.7                    Conservative: 24.4

Green:              5.4                     NDP: 14.1

 

 

Ten days ago, on November 17, I wrote “…I think Elizabeth May, who according to the 20 point pundits is a long-shot and hasn’t a chance of winning, may very well rewrite the political polling history books. Search as I did, there is no evidence of a candidate that has ever overcome 20+ points in 10 days. Wanna bet it’s going to happen? Wanna bet further that after last night it’s not 20 points…?”  

There is no doubt, political polling history books have been re-written.

Did the Green party win in yesterday’s by-election? The strict answer, for today, is someone other than Elizabeth May is the MP for London North Centre. Glen Pearson is to be congratulated and as I wrote on November 26, Glen Pearson “is a guy I actually like.”  The Liberals ran a good campaign and Glen’s manner and messaging was effective.

However, there is no mistaking the extraordinary and historical significance of what the Green Party and Elizabeth May have achieved since the last general election, and especially in the London by-election. The second place finish at 25.9% represents a significant and unparalleled achievement. It is also nearly a certainty, based on numerical direction and pace, that a few more days might have resulted in Canada’s first sitting Green party member.

To have come as close as it did, and from whence it came, the by-election outcome is not a defeat for Elizabeth May and the Green Party. On the contrary. A great deal has been achieved, and a great deal more has been experienced and learned.

Credit mustn’t simply go to its leadership, its members, campaign team, or even its campaign strategy. Although all of those factors played an important role. First and foremost, I believe, credit has to go to Londoners and to Canadians in general, who are showing more-and-more sign, they get it.

Canada faces serious and important challenges in areas such as the environment and energy, health care, foreign policy, taxation, education, justice, and even more basically, how government and parliament is structured and operates. The message to traditional parties and to traditional party structure couldn’t be more clear.   

Looking ahead, a great deal depends on what transpires in the coming weeks and months, including along traditional party lines and, yes, perhaps even among especially independent thinkers. As things stand now, I don’t see much promise for NDP support.

Without sacrificing what’s at its core, what the Green Party does with the information and experience it has recently gained will determine where the party goes from here in terms of its regional and national support standings, and its ability to be an effective representative in government. With that in mind, I would be quite surprised, assuming the Green Party does all the right things, if it’s regional and national support standings did not continue to surge. Stay tuned.